Huntington, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

797
FXUS61 KRLX 041430
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1030 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through today, with a hotter afternoon. A slow moving cold
front approaches late in the work week, with a return to more
active weather at least into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Wednesday...

Updated sky grids this morning to account for developing stratus
across the metro valley and up into northwest West Virginia.
Otherwise, temperatures and dew points remain on track for this
morning.

As of 110 AM Wednesday...

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will slowly drift
east through this period. This will still hold the area at bay
from any unsettled weather. Some high clouds will advect in and
some haze/smoke will still linger about the area, but should
not cause too many issues both in the sky and at the surface.
Chances for rain showers will become a reality for Thursday
morning across southeast Ohio.

For today, look for sunny and dry conditions with weak surface
flow. Temperatures will get into the upper 80s to low 90s
across much of the area. However, due to it being so dry, the
heat will not be close to any hazardous heat indices and will
not feel as hot as if we had a lot of moisture in the area.

The highs today will be fairly far from record territory
although will be around 10 degrees above normal. With
southerly flow ahead of a cold front approaching the area some
moisture will start to advect in by the evening and more cloud
coverage will become apparent by tonight. We might even get
some low clouds by late afternoon and for the evening if we do
get enough moisture flux.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

As we remain on the warm side of the front that is forecast to
move excruciatingly slowly across the Midwest later this week,
Thursday is expected to remain quite warm. Higher elevation
highs in the 70s to low 80s are expected, with the lowlands
still well into the 80s, though increasing clouds will likely
knock a couple degrees off today`s highs. However, it will be a
bit more humid on Thursday compared to today, with dewpoints in
the lowlands getting into the mid and perhaps even upper 60s,
with the combined effect being that max heat index values are
forecast to be about the same both days.

On the precip side of things, as the front slowly sags southeast
toward the CWA, shower and t-storm chances will gradually
increase through the day on Thursday. The front approaching
from the northwest should sag far enough across Ohio to bring
likely POPs to SE Ohio and NE Kentucky in the afternoon and
evening hours. Precip chances across the rest of the CWA remain
under 50%, as that may be more pop-up in nature well ahead of
the front. We may be working with 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE,
especially along and NW of the Ohio River, so there could be
robust activity, but the lack of much in the way of shear means
it will likely be pulse thunderstorms lacking longevity.
However, if the upper end of the CAPE forecast is realized,
storms could build high enough that some mid-level dry air will
present a localized severe wind risk (DCAPE around 1000 J/kg),
and SPC has put that area into a Marginal risk for wind. Very
weak storm motions combined with PWAT values getting around or
over 1.50" could lead to very heavy rain rates, and WPC has put
a similar area into a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

The slow but inexorable advance of the front will continue on
Friday, with widespread showers and some thunderstorms expected
across the CWA, especially from midday onward. SPC and WPC have
both painted the entire CWA in their respective Marginal risks
for Friday and Friday night, and this seems reasonable. The same
concerns on CAPE/DCAPE and PWATs/weak storm motion that are
expected on Thursday will also exist on Friday, this time across
the whole CWA. High temps on Friday will likely be lower owing
to cloud cover and widespread rain, but the added forcing of the
front being closer should help make up for having slightly less
buoyancy. Our recent stretch of dry weather should help blunt
some of the flash flooding risk, so any potential water issues
seem more likely than not to be very localized in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

The front looks like it may FINALLY push through the area on
Saturday, but fairly widespread showers and some thunderstorms
will linger across much of the area until it does pass. The
base of the trailing upper-level trough doesn`t pass east of the
CWA until late Saturday night or around sunrise on Sunday, so
lingering shower activity is expected for at least the first
part of Saturday night.

Sunday may be dry for most with weak high pressure shifting
across the area, but very weak or even non-existent short-wave
ridging along means it could be a `dirty high` with some showers
induced by diurnal heating. Similarly, there is some broad
agreement the next upper-level trough and associated surface
front pushing across the region early next week, probably later
Monday or Monday night, with showers and storms accompanying it.
The upper-level trough likely doesn`t pass through until
sometime Tuesday or Tuesday night, so at least some lingering
showers can be expected to the end of this long-term period.

With continuing cloud cover and widespread precip, and the
forecast of the frontal passage on Saturday, expect that day
will have highs back into the 60s and 70s for all, dependent on
elevation. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer, but that will
depend how much sunshine we see around the area. Monday may
warm a couple degrees further due to some advection ahead of the
expected frontal passage, with that front then dropping highs a
bit on Tuesday, assuming it passes as forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM Wednesday...

High pressure moves to the east slowly today but will still
keep the area settled from any weather. Some haze/smoke will be
lingering about today such as in the past few days, however not
thinking the near surface haze will affect VIS although, like
yesterday, there could be some minor restrictions to VIS in the
form of 5 or 6SM with HZ during the daytime. There is low
confidence that this will happen though. Other than that,
enough flow off the surface will keep fog at bay for today and
likely tomorrow. Chances of rain showers do come into the
picture Thursday morning across southeast Ohio and will
continue to advect in from northwest to southeast throughout
Thursday. VFR shall rule today with mainly southerly flow,
although weak around 5kts, by afternoon. Lastly, there is some
wind shear for this morning across PKB/CKB, but will diminish
by late morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of possible MVFR visibility in
haze/smoke is uncertain for today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon into, if not through, the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/JZ
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ